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World Bank sees India's poverty at 12.1% by 2028, slower decline

By CAShorts DeskPublished Source: World Bank, India Poverty and Equity Brief (October 2026); Business Standard

World Bank sees India's poverty at 12.1% by 2028, slower decline
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The World Bank's India Poverty and Equity Brief of October 2026 projects poverty at the $4.20-a-day line falling from an estimated 14.2% in 2026 to 12.1% by 2028, a slower decline than before. The rate fell from 57.7% in 2011 to 16.1% in 2023, lifting about 496 million people out of poverty, per the Bank.

Syllabus: GS3 · Indian Economy & Growth; GS3 · Inclusive Growth; Prelims · Economy & Social Development

Why this matters for UPSC

GS2 poverty and hunger and GS3 inclusive growth: Prelims can ask the World Bank's $3.00, $4.20 and $8.30 lines, purchasing power parity and the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index; Mains, why job growth has not lifted real earnings.

Why it matters

A family that has just climbed above the poverty line can slip back with one lost job or the end of free rations. The World Bank's figures show India has pulled hundreds of millions above the $3.00 and $4.20 lines, but four in five people still live below $8.30 a day, and real wages have barely moved. Much of the new work is low-paid, and youth unemployment has risen, especially among rural young women. So the next fall in poverty depends on better jobs in the belt of States from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal, not on more transfers alone. The larger issue is whether growth is reaching the poor through earnings or through state support.

Prelims pointers

  • World Bank poverty lines (2021 PPP): $3.00 a day international (extreme) line; $4.20 lower-middle-income; $8.30 upper-middle-income.
  • Purchasing power parity: converts incomes using price levels across countries, not market exchange rates; the World Bank's lines now use 2021 PPPs.
  • Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES): run by the National Statistics Office under MoSPI; rounds in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
  • Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS): MoSPI's labour survey; its current weekly status uses a seven-day reference period; monthly estimates since January 2025.
  • Global Multidimensional Poverty Index: OPHI and UNDP; Alkire-Foster method; three dimensions (health, education, living standards) and ten indicators.
  • NITI Aayog's National Multidimensional Poverty Index uses twelve indicators, adding maternal health and bank account to the global ten.
  • Gini index: 0 means perfect equality and 100 perfect inequality; the brief puts India's at 23.0 for 2023.

Practise a UPSC-style question

With reference to the World Bank's India Poverty and Equity Brief of October 2026, consider the following statements:

1. It measures extreme poverty at $3.00 a day per person in 2021 purchasing power parity terms.

2. It finds that a belt of States from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal accounts for about 57% of India's poor.

3. It draws its labour-market estimates from the Annual Survey of Industries.

How many of the above statements are correct?

  1. (a) Only one
  2. (b) Only two
  3. (c) All three
  4. (d) None
Show the answer

Answer: (b) Only two

1 is correct: the brief's international (extreme) poverty line is $3.00 a day at 2021 PPP. 2 is correct: the brief puts about 57% of India's poor in the contiguous belt from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal. 3 is incorrect: its labour estimates come from the Periodic Labour Force Survey's current weekly status, not the Annual Survey of Industries, which covers factories.

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