WMO forecasts December El Niño peak, drier conditions over India
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts El Niño to peak in December, with a near-certain chance of continuing through February 2027. Its October–December outlook indicates drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent and above-average temperatures across much of the globe. These are seasonal probabilities, so national and local forecasts remain essential.
Syllabus: Prelims · Geography; Prelims · Environment & Ecology; GS1 · Geophysical Phenomena
Why it matters
The official outlook gives India a documented reason to assess rainfall, heat and water-management risks over the coming season. Drier-than-normal conditions could affect rain-dependent farming and water availability, but regional impacts require national and local forecasts. A seasonal signal does not guarantee drought or establish a particular crop loss. Public agencies can use updated forecasts to plan advisories and preparedness, while comparing ENSO with other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. For UPSC, the issue links physical geography with disaster management and the responsible use of probabilistic climate information.
Prelims pointers
- El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, involving above-normal central and eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures.
- La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO, involving below-normal central and eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures.
- An El Niño declaration involves sustained warming and an atmospheric response; a single temperature reading alone is insufficient.
- Niño 3.4 is the equatorial Pacific monitoring region from 120°W to 150°W and 5°N to 5°S.
- The Southern Oscillation concerns the tropical Pacific atmospheric-pressure relationship measured between Tahiti and Darwin.
- WMO is a United Nations specialised agency headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can partly offset El Niño-associated suppression of Indian monsoon rainfall.
Practise a UPSC-style question
With reference to El Niño, consider the following statements:
1. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise above normal.
2. During El Niño, the easterly trade winds over the equatorial Pacific strengthen markedly.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- (a) 1 only
- (b) 2 only
- (c) Both 1 and 2
- (d) Neither 1 nor 2
Show the answer
Answer: (a) 1 only
1 is correct: El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, marked by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. 2 is incorrect: the easterly trade winds weaken, and can even reverse, during El Niño.
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